📶 AI second order effects

AI second order effects

How emerging managers are establishing themselves differently

A breakdown of the companies that actually matter each year

Another a16z partner starts her own fund

If FSD (full self driving) actualizes, what happens to car insurance companies? Reduced premiums, shift in risk assessment, new insurance products (insuring against software failures, hacking, or other tech-related risks)

What impact do AI and AI agents have on white collar labor? Specifically which pockets get decimated and which get accelerated? More leverage for businesses; less leverage for first-world employees. Financial services (mortgage brokers, financial analysts, accountants), legal (document review and legal research done by paralegals and junior lawyers), HR (recruitments + employee onboarding), and admin will be impacted the most. Creative work is still safe for now.

What impact do humanoids have on blue collar labor? Lower-skilled labor will be mostly automated; more blue collar opportunities will emerge as more white collar jobs disappear.

Will US national debt crush the domestic and global economy or will AI be the leverage / growth catalyst that saves us? Too loaded of a question to answer. Hoping that DOGE obliterates unnecessary government spend ASAP.

What assets are most mispriced in an AI driven world? Non-consensus answer: American land.

Technology has always been deflationary; is AI the ultimate deflationary technology? Too loaded of a question. As we’ve seen over the past few years, there are a million other variables (most of them being within the federal government) that decide the inflationary environment.

When do software companies transition to selling “outcomes” vs “software to generate outcomes”? This is already happening. The third order effect of this is how you incentivize sales reps when quota is largely dependant on usage instead of signed contracts.

Will a rebalanced S&P 500 rip over the next 30 years? The 500 largest companies in the world should have larger scale, more profitability and potentially be more enduring? Hard to imagine this not taking place. AI will make it easier for winners to keep winning.

If the set of public companies continue to shrink at current pace, how will the public participate in returns? Do these returns come before the companies go public? Increasingly it seems obvious to generate returns you have to participate in and have access in private markets. This is unclear, but it seems like many retail investors have turned to gambling (meme stocks, meme coins, sports betting) > traditional wealth (home equity, S&P 500, maxing out 401k).

What does AI do for wealth inequality? It will exacerbate it. You can now build faster, with faster feedback, with less capital required, and less employees needed. If you aren’t capable of building, buying, or owning assets, you’re in for a world of hurt.

How much more volatile and extreme will markets be as speed of information travels faster? Should we expect deeper lows, accelerated highs and shorter recovery periods in between? I don’t expect any change from what the past 20 years have looked like in this respect.

What does the world order look over the next 20 years: I’m bullish on the US, Dubai and India. Bearish on China, Russia and Europe. I agree with this mostly, but I am only investing in the US - no other market is close.

How do we get mental health, anxiety and depression in the next generation under control? If the trends continue, we are in for an increasingly unstable and disruptive society. There’s only so much that can be done with policy / technology. At the end of the day, it is up to the person. Finding God and finding purpose are two good places to start IMO.

What is the impact of AI driven healthcare / ozempic / weight loss drugs on: (1) food companies, (2) airlines, (3) healthcare system, (4) health products, (5) beauty industry? Ideally more pressure from each industry listed to provide better consumer experiences at lower prices.

Does AI accelerate or decelerate the trend toward global infertility? I don’t think AI is the only reason for this happening, but it definitely won’t help change this trajectory. People are spending more time online at a linear rate, they’re meeting and hooking up through dating apps and not through mutual connections, and the more data that is trained, the better the predictions, and that creates a cycle of more of the same (which is a declining birth rate in Western nations).

Andreessen Horowitz ‘Dynamism’ Partner to Launch Solo Fund (The Information)

Accel-KKR is on the hunt for GP-led secondaries (Venture Capital Journal)

Secondary discounts for startups have almost recovered (Pitchbook)

Celebrities Have An Unquenchable Thirst For Beverage Startups (Crunchbase)

More Workers Feel Stuck on the Job (WSJ)

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