📶 Where VCs are betting in 2024

Predictions on the future from some of the smartest investors

Author

Clay Norris
January 03, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

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Good morning 👋

It’s officially the first week of the new year, and I’m in the mood to make some predictions.

Will all of these turn out to be true? Probably not, but here goes.

If you think I’m right or wrong about anything, let me know at the bottom of this email.

TL;DR:

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NEWS
2024 predictions 🔮

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We’ve spent the past week scanning everybody’s 2024 predictions.

Here are ours:

AI application layer wars: LLMs and audio / visual models have now emerged and established themselves; now the conversation will shift higher up the stack and companies will compete on the front-end. Expect legacy players to adopt AI in order to improve their products and stay competitive with AI-first disrupters.

More brand name funds will shut their doors: Talk to anybody out there, and they’ll tell you how brutal the fundraising market is for venture funds right now. LPs have a bad taste in their mouth from the past decade of markups with little-to-no DPI, and we’ve already seen some notable funds close down. We expect to see more of this once the dust settles in 2024.

Co-pilots will 10x individual’s output: Every knowledge worker will get comfortable with using AI in our everyday work. AI will make difficult tasks easier for more people. Teachers can use it to grade papers, lawyers can use it for legal briefs, architects can use it for design sketches, and investors can use it to automate parts of their diligence. We will start to see a production gap between funds that leverage this type of technology vs. the ones that don’t. Here’s a list of co-pilots we’re recommending to members.

Distribution-as-a-service: Audience is the ultimate asset today, and distribution remains king. Building any sort of distribution requires a TON of work as many people are figuring out. This creates opportunities for companies like storyarb and other personal branding services to handle audience growth so that companies and individuals can focus on other things core to their businesses.

Alts go mainstream: As it becomes harder for the average person to build wealth through home ownership, many will turn to different assets with higher risk profiles. Expect companies like Vinovest, Otis, Masterworks, Alt, Here, Equi, and Royalty Exchange to ride this new wave of demand.

The newsletter bubble will start to pop: Everybody and their mother has started a newsletter over the past few years. How many have staying power? How many have something interesting to say week after week? How many newsletters does a reader realistically read every morning? These are some questions we’re asking as we’ve seen a rise in the number of newsletters popping into our inboxes.

People turn to religion: The world has become a crazier place. We don’t expect that to change. We do expect people to turn to religion more and more, and we have already seen that play out in the social circle we are a part of.

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