Good morning 👋
Masayoshi Son is one of the funniest people in tech.
He’s one of the wealthiest people on the planet, but he still has the risk tolerance of somebody with nothing to lose.
It’s hard to not respect that.
Yesterday he announced he was betting the house on future of America, and we’re breaking down why in today’s piece.
Let’s get into it.
P.S. 💰 Are you a full-time investor AND do you want to get paid more?
Today’s highlights
SoftBank returns to the big leagues
How Tomasz Tunguz uses AI
Grammarly acquires Coda
The cost of sin
TOP
Masa bets $100b on America 🇺🇸
Masayoshi Son is back at it, this time committing $100 billion into US companies over the coming years.
Why it matters: This move would reassert SoftBank as the leading tech investor after spending the past few years as a laughing stock of the ZIRP-era of venture hype cycles.
But this story matters for more reasons than that alone.
AI needs real infrastructure money: Training models like OpenAI’s GPT-4 isn’t cheap—it requires massive compute power, semiconductors, and robust infrastructure. This $100B isn’t just about capital—it’s about backstopping the physical and digital foundations of AI dominance.
Global capital alignment: SoftBank is reading the geopolitical tea leaves. By pledging U.S.-centric investments, it positions itself as a partner in America’s push to remain AI’s global leader, all while likely securing favorable regulatory treatment.
A new funding model for AI: Traditional VC can’t compete with this scale. The capital demands of AI infrastructure have moved well beyond typical venture checks and now require sovereign wealth funds, corporates, and institutional mega-bets.
What happens next: SoftBank’s $100B bet is part of a larger shift where AI infrastructure becomes the hottest asset class in tech.
Expect to see:
More mega-checks targeting compute infrastructure, semiconductors, and data centers (see Microsoft’s $10B deal with OpenAI).
Strategic alliances with governments to secure funding and regulatory backing. The AI arms race is no longer just corporate—it’s geopolitical.
Increased competition for VCs: Traditional funds must find ways to partner with infrastructure players or focus on high-leverage, AI-adjacent opportunities (think applications, tooling, or niche hardware).
Bottom line: SoftBank’s move is about owning the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush, but the larger story here is that there is only one place to invest your money right now, and that is America.
The combination of:
Pro-capitalist policy makers coming into power
The reduction of government power and regulation and previously heavily-regulated industries
Has given more optimism to invest in the US than we have had in decades.
If you’re a capital allocator, where else would you rather put money to work?
Together with Masterworks
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LINKS
💯 I Use AI 100 Times Per Hour: Tomasz Tunguz tracked his workday and realized AI has become an essential coworker
🔐 Crypto For Newbies: BowTied Bull dishes on the fundamentals
🏁 Why Founder CEOs are (Probably) Better Than Hired Guns: Data-Driven VC discusses the pros and cons of both and then shares the data
📶 Rex Woodbury (Founder & Managing Partner @ Daybreak) on the trends changing the world: Trends on where the world is heading, unconventional investment theses, pairing a newsletter alongside a fund, and some hard truths about VC
🛠️ 24 AI Tools Ranked from Essential to Forgettable for 2025: Peter Yan delivers an honest review of which AI tools are actually worth your time
🧗♂️ 3-2-1—On Acting with Confidence, the Different Types of Age, and the Importance of Momentum: James Clear shares 3 ideas, 2 quotes, and 1 question
TWEET
HEADLINES
Grammarly acquires productivity startup Coda, brings on new CEO (TechCrunch)
Stephen Curry’s Penny Jar Capital files to raise a Fund II (TechCrunch)
Insurance Startup Stand Has a Plan to Cover ‘Uninsurable’ Homes (WSJ)
Databricks Raises $10B In 2024’s Largest Venture Funding Deal (Crunchbase)
For Fintech, 2024 Was A Year of Hype, Hustle and Hard Truths. What’s Next In 2025? (Crunchbase)
MEME
POLL
Given these two choices, where are you betting most of your capital over the next four years?
Thanks for reading this far and giving us a little bit of your attention this week.
Feel free to unsubscribe whenever this stops becoming valuable to you.
- Clay
RESULTS
Here are the results from our poll question in Monday’s piece:
Is 10 years enough time for venture funds to return capital back to LPs today?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 It's more than enough time - you should be able to return capital faster (3)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 It's not enough time - funds need longer (3)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 It's the perfect amount of time and doesn't need to be adjusted (3)
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