Good morning 👋
And happy hump day.
I’ve been doing a lot more reading this week, and I’m starting to get more ideas throughout the day.
Funny how that works.
Sam Lessin is the GP at Slow, and he’s become on of my favorite voices on Twitter.
Earlier this week, he shared a massive deck that shares what he’s seeing in the venture world, and I’ve been all over it.
Here are the biggest takeaways from that deck …
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Today’s highlights
Venture in 2025
a16z snags another big name GP
Cluely has its viral moment
TOP
where VC is heading (according to @lessin from Slow Ventures)
Sam Lessin (@lessin) and the Slow team put out some of the best, non-obvious venture content in the game (shoutout to Jack, Yoni, and others).
If you don’t follow them, you should.
Sam put out an 84-page deck on the state of VC in 2025, and I have spent the past few hours going through all of it.
I think it’s great.
Here are the main bullet points that I got from it:
Predictable public demand for the “polished” unicorn is gone. The combination of adverse selection, the best companies staying private longer, and dumping SPACs / low-float IPOs on the masses has created huge distrust in all tech IPOs.
There are too many early-stage VCs (especially early career ones) whose incentive is to spend money, not make money. Junior investors advance by doing deals and deploying capital. Making money on those checks is an afterthought - who knows if you’ll be around in 7-10 years anyways?
“Rounding error” checks by multi-stage funds into seed deals = bad pricing and bad deal dynamics. Founders and talent get directed in the wrong direction by over-eager capital.
The VC factory model created asset managers and eliminated a lot of the venture craft. Fund sizes grew, and fees are more predictable than returns.
Most AI startups (and their investors) are going to get crushed. The tech is all open-sourced, everyone can use the same APIs, you will lose to anybody with better distribution than you.
People don’t trust their startup equity will be worth anything in 10 years. They want cash, not stock. This drastically limits the talent pool.
Shaky footing creates a drive for more self-reliance. Getting fired / laid off by your tech employer has this effect, people do what’s best for them, and they realize it’s better to build a base for themselves rather than build a foundation on top of sand.
Prioritize capital efficiency > scalability of investment opportunity. Look for places where dollars are scarce and valuable to companies.
The new optionality for funds. Building for the next round is dead. You can’t assume the public market will be there when you want to exit. You need to actively develop liquidity options.
Read more: https://docsend.com/view/e6nd457kgbg8zich
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HEADLINES
Columbia student suspended over interview cheating tool raises $5.3M to ‘cheat on everything’ (TechCrunch)
LPs slow their pace: ‘Nobody is getting fired for taking things slowly right now’ (VCJ)
VCs sticking with climate — for now (Axios)
a16z acqui-hires VC tech podcaster Erik Torenberg, who joins as new partner (TechCrunch)
LINKS
🍺 VC Goes Full Froth: 7 tech M&A predictions for 2025, according to CBInsights
💹 How to Hire GREAT Marketers: Marketing Ideas shares how not to waste time on finding unicorns, but to build smart marketing orgs that don’t require them
👀 Staying Grounded: Sometimes it’s the things we do when we think no one’s paying attention that makes the biggest impression on other people
🔚 Why Starting With Solutions Always Fails: Why starting with solutions leads to dead ends—and how to reverse-engineer startup ideas from actual pain points
🔐 How to 3x a Fund: Here’s what needs to happen behind-the-scene in order to hit 3x DPI for a fund
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- Clay
(Founder @ Confluence.VC | GP @ Outlaw)
