📶 "how fast you win" vs. "how much you win"

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And welcome back to another week of trying to make money typing on a computer.

We’ve talked in the past about the trend of companies staying private longer.

Today we’re breaking down a post from Josh Kopelman on how that trend changes fund math.

Spoiler: it’s not good.

Here’s the breakdown …

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Josh Kopelman (First Round) has been one of the sharpest venture investors over the past few decades, and he has seen multiple boom and bust periods.

Ignoring the booms and busts, one of the more interesting things happening today is that companies are staying private longer. This is happening for a number of reasons, but the second-order effects are interesting to think through for venture funds.

10-year funds make sense, but 15-year funds do not, and Josh breaks down the math in this thread.

We have written in the past about our thoughts on how this change plays out:

Read more: https://x.com/joshk/status/1916147081275638234

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(Founder @ Confluence.VC | GP @ Outlaw)