Good morning 👋
Happy Friday. What a week.
Here’s what you missed if you’re just tuning in:
The operator-turned-investor movement, the evolution of engineering roles, and how GTM is changing in 2025 according to Ashley Smith (GP @ Vermilion Cliffs) (link)
What happens to SaaS as AI continues to eat away at core workflows? (link)
Data on how many LPs it takes to close different sized funds (link)
GC is eyeing an IPO (link)
Why megafunds are becoming LPs into the next era of fund managers (link)
Yesterday, Jeremy Giffon hopped on the TB pod and gave his thoughts on where venture is headed.
When Jeremy talks, we listen, and that’s what we’re covering today.
Today’s highlights
Jeremy Giffon’s thoughts on the future
The illusion of choice
A quarter of YC is using AI-generated codebases
Foundation’s latest fundraise announcement
TOP
Where the puck is going 🏒
TB pod has become the only podcast I actually listen to. Jordi and John are great, the format is great, and the guests are great; winning combo.
Yesterday they had Jeremy Giffon on. I’ve written about Jeremy in the past, and he’s one of the smartest / most unique investor minds I’ve studied.
Here’s what he had to say about where the world is going:
Picking up roadkill of the venture industry is incredibly lucrative right now.
There is a severe lack of DPI especially in the middle of the portfolio. Lots of companies are realizing they need a new owner, and lots of funds realizing you can only eat the DPI.
Capping headcount and increasing”headcount” through AI is creating the renaissance of the bootstrapper.
Growing with less capital and keeping more control is becoming the new status symbol.
Your cap table affects your business in a wide variety of subtle ways.
Often times the best outcome is just returning capital (used to be the norm but hasn’t been the case recently).
You can be in the people business while also being in the value business.
There are tons of founders who are stuck (raised too much, not hitting growth targets, bad pref stack), who can’t quit but aren’t willing to have those tough conversations with the board.
There is a middle ground between being a founder and being an exec.
There’s a hurdle in PE; there’s no hurdle in VC. Exhibit Z on why raising a venture fund is a phenomenal business model.
If your model is to have a lot of zeros in your portfolio, your cost of capital (minimum return you need) is very high. This creates tons of knock on effects.
Pareto outcomes exist in most things.
The venturification of Middle America will change the industry and have more people feel venture capital in a tangible way.
If you made money online in high school, your odds of being a good founder grows.
There is a different culture DNA of funds started by founders vs. funds started by investors.
You can either be a small partnership that can be found on a Wikipedia page, or you can grow a large business.
Most GPs fall into one of two camps: they are either heros at the firm where everybody loves them and them firm can’t live without them, or they are back-office / low status, and nobody likes working with them.
Every day, venture acts more like an asset manager.
Anything that can be done quickly can be undone just as quickly.
GP / LP Mastermind
The “anti-conference” for fund managers 🌴
We don’t like conferences, so we created our own version that we would actually look forward to going to.
📆 Dates: April 24-27, 2025
📍 Location: Miami, FL
ℹ️ Other details:
Small group of 6-10 LPs, GPs, and partners
Golf and padel
Boat charter
Private dinners
No outside sponsors
We’ve already confirmed half of the guests, we only have space for a few more, and applications close in under a month.
If you’re interested, we’d recommend letting us know sooner rather than later …
TWEET
HEADLINES
A quarter of startups in YC’s current cohort have codebases that are almost entirely AI-generated (TechCrunch)
Foundation Capital, an early backer of Solana and Cerebras, raises $600M fund (TechCrunch)
Aerospace and defense dealmaking takes flight (Pitchbook)
CoreWeave acquires AI developer platform Weights & Biases amid IPO prep (Pitchbook)
CVC Capital secures nearly $5B for long-term PE fund (Pitchbook)
MEMOS
Chima: Interoperability for AI agents
Superpower: The all-in-one health membership for elite performers
Documenso: The DocuSign killer
LINKS
📦 Why “Talent Unboxing” is Set to Become the Latest VC Hiring Craze: Crunchbase News says conditions are prime for a talent shake-up that pays less attention to the shiny exterior of a candidate
🏌🏼♂️ Your Job as CFO—Keep the Talent on the Field: Mostly Metrics believes the goal of CFOs’ should be to remove any friction and let people do what they do best
🛟 No One is Coming to Save You—Not Your Politicians, Not Your Boss: BowTied Bull offers advice on building skills, leverage, and multiple income streams to overcome the dependency on others
💲 Legal Costs for Raising a Funding Round: Data-Driven VC shares data from 9,059 transactions that shows legal fees start low but rise significantly as the the rounds progress
♾️ There is No Transition “Out of Sales” as a Founder: At least one founder must be closely focused on revenue….forever
MEME
BOARDROOM
Get a FREE audit of your business 🆓
Honest take: I’ve made hundreds thousands of mistakes building this business.
GTM mistakes that slow down sales
Marketing / paid advertising mistakes that literally light money on fire
Ignoring platforms or not learning how different algorithms work that results in not getting enough attention
Not delegating or using automation that cost me hundreds of hours of my time
And a thousand others
But after making tweaks for 5+ years, you start to learn what works and what doesn’t.
Lucky for me, 99% of this knowledge of what works is now stored in my head.
Unlucky for you, most of this can’t be shared online, and it has to be applied to specific situations.
That’s why I’m doing FREE business audits for any reader who owns a business and is looking to grow.
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Thanks for reading this far and giving us a little bit of your attention this week.
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- Clay
(Founder @ Confluence.VC | GP @ Outlaw)
