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And welcome back to the work week.

Maybe you noticed, maybe you didn’t, but we’ve done a rebrand (shoutout to Ricky @ Pixels).

Here’s why we did this:

  • We think competing for space in the inbox has never been harder, and each of you probably has dozens (if not hundreds) of other newsletters competing for your attention.

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  • To quote somebody else we read, “the cost of being average has never been more severe, but the upside of being unique has never been more higher”. Generic content and branding screams average, so we’re doing whatever we can to do the opposite.

I could go on, but I think you get the point.

We’re excited about the new look and feel, but let us know what you think.

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Big breakdown

The DNA of Thrive Capital

Thrive has become one of (if not) the most respected funds in the world.

It started as a $5m vehicle in 2010; its latest fund was $3.3b. That kind of rise is virtually unheard of.

The Colossus guys wrote this deep dive on Josh and the firm last week, it was shared a good bit, and we spent the weekend reading through it ourselves.

Here are the main things that stood out:

“Thrive was a stage-, geography-, and sector-agnostic venture firm that would concentrate all its investments in a very small number of companies; that it was not only an investment firm but also itself a company; that it incubated its own companies as well as invested in others; and that it didn’t just invest and incubate but functioned as a service provider, product creator, and embedded operational commando unit for founders.”

“Do you know the biggest mistake most musicians make? Their first album comes from love, heartbreak, passion, or depression. They have no expectation of how the world will respond. They write it from the heart, and if it catches on, they’re validated by the world. But then they start writing their second album, and they don’t necessarily write it based on love, heartbreak, or passion. They write the album they think the world will want.”

“I was interviewing a candidate recently who asked me, ‘Why is everyone at Thrive so driven and motivated and hungry?’ I told her it is because most of us are either first generation or from New Jersey, the state everyone is always making fun of.”

“In life, sometimes we get so powerful that we start to think we’re the dealers of our own fate. We are not the dealers. God is the dealer. Sometimes we have to be brought back down to earth to get perspective on what is really important.”

“By the time I was in high school, my father had accomplished a tremendous amount,” he said. “He was deeply impactful in both the business and philanthropic worlds. And then overnight our family were outcasts. The world treated us all one way for the beginning part of my childhood, and then suddenly they treated us very differently. That experience showed me how the world works, and why you should not care too much about what people think.”

“I do believe that there is something in my family lineage. We are capable of figuring shit out. My parents taught us that every day you have to try to be better than you were the day before, that you have to just keep going in life, because we are all on borrowed time.”

“Everyone hates the man until they become the man.”

One insight Golden vouchsafed to Kushner was that investment firms, as they scale, start to lose a sense of their identity and wind up focusing not on what they’re good at but on the size of their assets under management, in turn leading to a lower cost of capital, less ambitious people, more mediocrity, and lower returns.

“At that moment in venture you were either an early stage firm or a later stage firm. You were either a software firm or a consumer firm. You were either a European firm or a US firm. The idea of having a fund that could build companies, invest in companies, invest in them early or late, and inside or outside the US, it was just deeply unconventional.”

“When you’re in private equity you spend all your time trying to figure out what could go wrong,” Zaki said. “My conversations with Josh were much more about what could go right. I was also just eager to be with another young person who was finding a way to build and create, and not have to wait 10 or 15 years before you get your chance.”

Asked what he made of the scene at Trump’s second inauguration, he smirked. “That weekend I spoke with my brother several times, and we reminisced about all the people who made his life and our family’s lives miserable for four years, and were all there celebrating now as if they had won the election themselves,” he said. “The world is very predictable.”

“One of the reasons the tech industry is so creatively bankrupt is that people just focus on attributes you can measure.”

“The people who win deals are the ones who want to win them most.”

Fund updates

What I’m up to

Getting to first close is still priority #1, so everything else is taking a backseat until that is fully closed. We’re sitting at ~$1m committed with another ~$1m I need to chase down from people who have verbally committed but haven’t signed docs yet.

  • Note to self: for future funds, put docs in their hands immediately after they give you a verbal ‘yes’.

Here are some other things I’m thinking through / working on:

Average check size for first close investments

Something I am thinking through is how check size should change based on how much capital you call for first close.

In my model, I have a static # of investments and follow-on checks, and that check size changes as you alter the fund size. Our minimum fund size is $5m, and we feel the strategy works anywhere between $5m - $20m.

Let’s say we close $2m for first close. On one hand, we could start executing on the minimum fund size and write smaller initial tickets (~$50k). That would give us more flexibility to show access (the promise of any pre-seed fund - this one included), but we would have to correct for the average check size later based on where we shake out for the total fund size.

On the other hand, we could operate under the original average check size assumptions (~$120k). IMO this is more of a one-way door, and if fundraising draws out longer than expected and the fund size is lower than $10m, it changes the fund math and operating strategy.

I may have just given myself an answer by writing out my logic, but that’s some of the calculus that has been going through my head recently.

Companies

There are really two categories where I am spending most of my time meeting and talking with new companies:

  1. Back-office systems of action: Basically anything that allows back-office departments (finance, accounting, compliance) run with less human involvement

  2. GTM tooling: This is becoming more widely-encompassing, but I’m spending most of my time on anything that helps growth teams create more leverage

For bullet #1, most of the companies I am most excited about are building for core workflows across the finance and accounting departments.

For bullet #2, some of the companies I have liked the most are building specifically with CROs and CMOs in mind (with more of a focus on manager tools and less of a focus on individual contributor tools).

If you’re building in any of these spaces, I’d love to talk.

Updated branding

By far the least important of the updates this week, but we cleaned up the branding to match the aesthetic we wanted.

The new look is in each of the teaser docs below in case that gives you more of a reason to check things out.

ICYMI

Best of last week

prediction markets and product-moment fit: Thoughts on the prediction economy, notes from Outlaw, and the best from last week

courage is the moat: The last moat in venture, access vs. outliers, and a deep dive on the solo GP model at scale

systems of records ➡️ systems of action: Autonomous systems, the death of social contracts, and some data on how frothy the market really is

condensing stories into packages with Danny Chu (CEO @ Journey): The importance of story packaging, lessons from a PLG funnel, and why you should build for a smaller audience at first

Explore the full archive

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Rabbit holes

The Solo GP Model at Scale: The inside story of how one man manages 3 funds entirely by himself and without any partners, analysts, contractors, or even EAs (LINK)

Are We In an AI Bubble?: Data-Driven VC looks beyond the short-term and is convinced the value created will exceed the expectations (LINK)

Data Center vs. Office Center Construction: Visual Capitalist charts the shift from concentrating human beings in offices to concentrating the computation needed for AI (LINK)

Venture Capital’s Selective Betting: Pitchbook’s data shows AI-first companies with fast growth are getting VC money at high valuations, while classic SaaS businesses with good growth may struggle to finish a round (LINK)

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